'We Could Lose Texas': Cruz Warns of a GOP 'Bloodbath' 2 Days Before the Midterms

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Photo: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio (public domain).

In 60 seconds: Sen. Ted Cruz is warning that Republicans could lose Texas, every statewide race there, and the Senate itself if conservative voters stay home on Tuesday. His alarm is built on early-vote numbers that show Democrats turning out in far bigger numbers so far.

Key Takeaways

Cruz: "We could lose Texas... We could lose every single statewide race in Texas."
He puts 8 to 10 Senate races as "basically tied" — a good night means 53 GOP seats, a bad night as few as 45.
In Texas, Ken Paxton trails James Talarico 49% to 43% in a CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters.
Texas early voters with Democratic primary histories have cast about 70,000 more ballots than those with Republican histories, per NBC DFW.
Nationally, more than 52 million Americans have already voted — a midterm record.

Two days before the midterms, one of the Republican Party's loudest voices just said the quiet part out loud — and it wasn't reassuring.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas went on his podcast, "The Verdict with Ted Cruz," and delivered a warning that sounded less like campaign spin and more like a fire alarm. If conservative voters don't show up on Election Day, he said, the party could lose his home state, its Senate majority, and the House along with it.

What happened

Cruz didn't hedge. "We could lose Texas," he told listeners. "We could lose every single statewide race in Texas. That's how close these numbers are."

Then he went further. "If the election were over today, if just the early votes that have been cast so far were counted, Republicans would lose massively," Cruz said. "It would not be close. We would lose both the House and Senate. It would be a bloodbath."

Here's the thing: this isn't some backbencher panicking on cable news. Cruz is one of President Donald Trump's closest allies in the Senate, a man who has run plenty of campaigns himself. When he says the numbers scare him, Republicans tend to listen.

He also pushed back on the idea that the figures can be waved away. Some conservatives, he acknowledged, say they don't trust the polls. His answer was blunt: the data he has examined are real, and Democrats are, in his words, "massively out-turning out" Republicans.

Latest verified facts

Cruz framed the Senate map as genuinely up for grabs. He said 8 to 10 Senate races across the country are "basically tied." On a good night, he said, Republicans could finish with 53 seats — holding the 53-47 majority they have now. On a bad night, he warned, they could wake up to just 45.

In Texas, the race drawing the most national attention is the Senate contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted October 20-27 found Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters.

The governor's race is tight, too. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages.

Then there are the early-vote numbers themselves. More than 7 million Texans have already cast ballots — already above the state's full early-vote total from 2022. And early-voting data analyzed by Republican researchers and reported by NBC DFW found that voters with Democratic primary histories have cast about 70,000 more ballots than voters with Republican primary histories.

Nationally, the picture is similar. More than 52 million Americans have already voted in person or by mail, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab — a midterm record, up from 45.9 million before Election Day in 2022.

One important caveat, and it matters: early-vote party breakdowns are not election results. Ballots are not counted by candidate before Election Day in most states, and a voter's primary history doesn't always predict their general-election choice. Cruz's warning is about turnout patterns, not counted votes.

Why it matters

Texas has been the Republican Party's anchor for a generation. Losing every statewide race there, as Cruz warned is possible, would be a political earthquake.

The Senate math is just as stark. A 53-seat majority gives Republicans room to lose a race or two and still govern. A 45-seat minority ends that entirely, handing Democrats control of the chamber for the final two years of Trump's term — and Cruz tied his warning to the House as well.

Impact on the USA and the world

Midterm elections always reshape what a president can do. A Democratic Senate could block judicial nominees, stall legislation, and launch investigations. A Republican hold keeps Trump's agenda moving.

For voters, the stakes are more immediate: control of Congress decides what happens on taxes, health care, energy, and immigration for the next two years.

What happens next

Our take: everything now comes down to Tuesday. Cruz's own argument contains the Republican counter-case — the party's voters traditionally turn out in much larger numbers on Election Day itself, and the early-vote gap could narrow fast once those ballots are counted. If that pattern holds, his "bloodbath" may look overblown by Wednesday morning.

But if it doesn't — if Election Day turnout merely matches the early trend — then Cruz will have called it, in public, two days early. Watch Texas first on election night, then the eight to ten tied Senate races he flagged.

Sources: Newsmax; TRT World; News18; political.org; NBC DFW (via Newsmax); CNN/SSRS poll (via TRT World); University of Florida Election Lab.