The California State Capitol in Sacramento. A new court filing challenges the Justice Department's list of alleged noncitizen voters in the state. (File photo: Andre_m / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0)
In 60 seconds: A court filing three days before the midterms says 42% of the names on the Justice Department's California "noncitizen" voter list don't match anyone on the state's voter rolls — and at least 22 of the flagged people are confirmed U.S. citizens.
- Of 20,930 names the DOJ flagged as possible noncitizen voters in California, 8,880 — 42% — match no one on the state's current voter file, researchers say.
- At least 22 flagged people are confirmed U.S. citizens, with 66 more highly likely citizens; one report puts nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens as highly likely misflagged.
- The DOJ demanded California separate these voters' ballots on Election Day and threatened election workers with prosecution; California refused.
- Multiple judges have rejected the ballot-separation demand, and a federal judge ordered the DOJ to stop sending such demands — an order the administration appealed Saturday.
Three days before Election Day, the fight over who gets to vote in California just got a lot more concrete — and awkward for the federal government. For weeks, the Justice Department has waved around a list of more than 20,000 supposedly ineligible voters. Now outside researchers have actually checked it. Their verdict, filed in federal court Saturday: nearly half the names don't match anyone on California's voter rolls at all.
What happened
On Saturday, October 31, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA) and researchers from the UCLA Voting Rights Project filed an analysis of the Justice Department's 20,930-name list of alleged noncitizen voters in California. It is the first outside analysis of the list, which reached the plaintiffs' hands only after U.S. District Chief Judge James Boasberg ordered the government on Friday to disclose it.
The backstory matters. The federal government sent California the list on October 12 and asked the state to sequester the corresponding ballots during the Election Day count. California refused. The Justice Department then threatened election workers with prosecution if they did not treat the flagged names as possible illegal voters. CHIRLA and the UCLA project had sued the Department of Homeland Security in early October over using federal immigration data to challenge state voter rolls.
Related: Judge bars DOJ from threatening election workers 4 days before the midterms.
Latest verified facts
Here's what the researchers found, according to the Associated Press's account of the filing. Of the 20,930 names, 8,880 — 42% — do not correspond to anyone in California's current voter file. The analysis identified at least 22 people on the list whose naturalization records confirm they are U.S. citizens, plus 66 more who are highly likely to be citizens on near-exact matches. One report of the filing says nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens were "highly likely" to have been incorrectly flagged.
The researchers also flagged the list's construction: it lacked a voter-identification number for each entry — the key field officials use to verify matches — contained duplicates, and included incomplete or inconsistent data.
California's own review points the same way. The state told a federal court that about 1 in 4 people on the list were born in the United States. An earlier Los Angeles County sample of 200 names found nearly 40% with reported birthplaces indicating U.S. birth, more than 70% with no voting history, and a majority tied to canceled or inactive registrations.
Now, a necessary dose of honesty about the source. This analysis comes from the plaintiffs challenging the administration — their filing, not a judge's ruling — and it does not establish the citizenship or eligibility of every unmatched person. Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for California governor and an adviser to the UCLA project, co-signed it. The Justice Department has not publicly responded to this specific analysis in the reports reviewed, though spokesperson Kiersten V. Pels has said: "Every ballot cast by an ineligible voter cancels out the vote of an American citizen."
Why it matters
Forget the partisan framing for a second and look at the mechanics. If a list is used to pull ballots aside on Election Day, it has to be right name by name. A 42% non-match rate doesn't prove every flagged person is eligible. It does prove the list can't do its job without sweeping up thousands of people who shouldn't be on it, including citizens.
That's why the courts have been skeptical. Multiple judges have already rejected the ballot-sequestration demand, and on Friday a federal judge ordered the Justice Department to stop sending such demands to state officials. The administration appealed on Saturday, so the legal fight is live right up to Election Day.
Impact on the USA and the world
California is the test case, but the precedent would travel. If federal immigration databases can be used to demand ballot separation in one state on lists like this, every state with a close race becomes a candidate for the same treatment.
For voters, the stakes are immediate: nobody's ballot should be set aside because of a database mismatch that was never checked. And for election workers — the same people a federal judge just shielded from DOJ threats in a separate ruling — the courts' message so far has been consistent: run the election by the state's books, not by a federal list.
Related: Trump reinstates rallies as DOJ probes Alaska, California votes and 2.8 million Georgians already voted — a midterm record.
What happens next
Watch three things before Tuesday. First, the appeal of Friday's order — if an appeals court lets the DOJ keep sending demands, California counties face conflicting instructions. Second, whether the Justice Department answers this analysis with its own data, rather than a general statement about ineligible voting. Third, whether any county actually separates ballots based on this list on Election Day — and whether that triggers an emergency court fight while votes are counted.
Our take: the most important number here isn't 42% — it's 22. Twenty-two confirmed citizens on a list that was supposed to catch noncitizens is a small number with a very large implication. A system that flags citizens as ineligible, then threatens the workers who refuse to act on it, needs to be fixed, in public, before a single ballot is set aside because of it.
Frequently asked questions
What is the DOJ's California voter list?
A 20,930-name list the Justice Department built from federal immigration data, which it says identifies likely noncitizen voters in California and asked the state to treat as possible illegal voters.
What did the new analysis find?
That 8,880 names (42%) match no one on California's current voter file, at least 22 flagged people are confirmed U.S. citizens, and the list lacked voter ID numbers and contained duplicates.
Is this a court ruling?
No. It is an analysis filed by CHIRLA and UCLA researchers challenging the administration. It is not a judicial finding, and it does not settle the eligibility of every person on the list.
Sources: Associated Press (October 31, 2026); CHIRLA / UCLA Voting Rights Project court filing; Justice Department statement (Kiersten V. Pels); California court filings.