Voters head to a polling place in St. Paul, Minnesota. This is a file photo from the 2020 election, not a picture of 2026 voting. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
In 60 seconds: More than 51 million Americans had already voted before Election Day, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab — already beating the entire early-vote total from the 2022 midterms, with Election Day still to come on Tuesday, November 3.
- More than 51 million ballots were cast early ahead of the November 3 midterms, per the University of Florida Election Lab, cited by Reuters.
- That already tops the nearly 46 million (45.9 million) who voted before Election Day in 2022 — and the count was still growing on Saturday.
- Texas leads with roughly 6.9 to 7 million early votes, already 1.5 million more than its entire 2022 early total; California follows at about 5.1 million and Florida at about 4.7 million.
- In the roughly 27 states that report party registration, registered Democrats account for about 43% of early voters and Republicans about 32% — registration, not votes cast for any candidate.
- Voters will decide all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats; Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority, and Democrats must flip at least four Senate seats to take the chamber.
Two days before Election Day, the midterm story already has a headline that doesn't depend on a single poll: Americans are voting early in numbers never seen in a midterm before. More than 51 million ballots were already in by Saturday — and 2022's final early-vote total is already in the rearview mirror.
What happened
Early voting for the 2026 midterm elections surged past its previous record over the final weekend before Election Day. According to University of Florida Election Lab data, cited by Reuters and reported October 31, more than 51 million Americans had cast ballots in person or by mail ahead of Tuesday, November 3. The previous midterm early-vote total, from 2022, was nearly 46 million — 45.9 million, by the Election Lab's count — and this year's figure passed it with days of early voting still available in some states.
The climb was fast. On Friday evening, October 30, the count stood at 49.6 million — about 26.8 million in person and 22.9 million mail ballots returned. By Saturday morning it had passed 50.5 million and kept rising. In Virginia, Saturday was the last day of early in-person voting, and long lines formed at polling places.
Latest verified facts
The biggest early-vote piles are in the biggest states. Texas has logged roughly 6.9 to 7 million early votes — already about 1.5 million more than its entire 2022 early total, and about 50% more than at the equivalent point in 2022, per an Associated Press analysis. California sits near 5.1 million, Florida near 4.7 million.
Then there's the number everyone will argue about — and the one most easily misread. In the roughly 27 states that report party registration on early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 43% of early voters and Republicans about 32%, with the rest unaffiliated or registered with other parties. By Friday evening, that worked out to roughly 10.3 to 10.7 million registered Democrats and 7.5 to 7.8 million registered Republicans in those states. Here's the part that matters: party registration is not a vote. A registered Democrat can vote Republican, a registered Republican can vote Democratic, and millions of early voters live in states that don't report party at all. These 27 states do not represent the whole country, and the registration split says nothing about who is winning.
Why it matters
Record early turnout matters for a simple reason: it changes what Election Day itself has to do. When more than 51 million ballots are already banked, Tuesday's in-person vote is the second act, not the whole show — and a political scientist quoted by Axios said overall turnout could surpass 2022 entirely. That would be remarkable for a midterm, which historically draws far fewer voters than a presidential year.
It also matters because it punctures the laziest kind of election-night punditry before it starts. Early-vote totals measure enthusiasm and organization, not outcomes. The ballots are sealed, the choices inside them are secret, and the registration breakdown covers only part of the map.
Impact on the USA and the world
The stakes on Tuesday are about as high as a midterm gets. Voters will fill all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority and a narrow House lead. For Democrats to take the Senate, they must flip at least four seats while holding every seat they already have — a narrow path through a map that includes several of the closest races in the country.
That context is why both parties are watching the surge closely. High turnout in Texas, California, and Florida alone means tens of millions of ballots in states with dozens of competitive House races — even though turnout alone doesn't tell you who anyone voted for.
What happens next
Millions of votes are still to come on Election Day itself, and the final turnout — early plus Election Day — will determine whether 2026 sets an overall midterm record, not just an early-vote one. Counting will then stretch past Tuesday in states where mail ballots arriving by their deadlines are still tallied, and close races may take days to call. Senate Wire will track results as they are confirmed, not projected.
Our take: don't let anyone — on either side — turn a turnout record into a victory lap before a single ballot is counted. What 51 million early votes actually prove is that Americans showed up. Who they chose is a question only the count can answer, and it's the only one that matters on Tuesday night.
Read our earlier coverage: 2.8 Million Georgians Already Voted — a Midterm Record With Election Day Still to Come and What a Split Congress Actually Does — and Why Gridlock Is the Point.
Sources
- Reuters, via The Straits Times: "US campaign enters final weekend as Alaska, California ballot fights heat up" (October 31, 2026) — University of Florida Election Lab figures
- NHK World: "Early voting turnout in US surpasses 2022 midterms" (November 1, 2026)
- The Guardian, via World Right Now: early-vote tally above 50.5 million by Saturday morning, October 31, 2026
- Associated Press analysis of state early-vote figures, as reported October 31, 2026