Prediction Markets Just Passed $1.4 Billion on the Midterms

In 60 seconds: More than $1.4 billion has now traded on prediction markets tied to the 2026 midterms, according to a new CNN analysis — and Kalshi alone accounts for nearly $1.1 billion of it. The odds currently favor Democrats to take both chambers, and regulators are warning about insider trading as Election Day nears.

Here's the thing: Americans are no longer just watching the midterms. They are trading them — in size. Prediction markets, where people buy and sell contracts on who wins what, have gone from a niche hobby to a billion-dollar shadow scoreboard for the 2026 elections. And the scoreboard currently says something polls have been slower to say out loud.

The U.S. Capitol in Washington. Prediction markets now price Democrats as favorites to take both chambers. Photo: Martin Falbisoner / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).

What happened

Prediction markets tied to the 2026 midterm elections have surpassed $1.4 billion in trading volume as Election Day approaches, according to a CNN analysis published Oct. 23. The growth has been explosive: small-scale election markets have existed for years, but they took off before the 2024 presidential election and have surged again for the midterms.

Kalshi, the biggest U.S. prediction company, accounts for nearly $1.1 billion of that volume, according to a company spokesperson. Its markets cover individual race outcomes, turnout numbers, prominent endorsements, whether candidates will debate, and even what gets said at campaign rallies. Rival Polymarket has seen more than $340 million in midterm-related trading across its U.S. platform and its offshore site.

Latest verified facts

What do the odds actually say? Market price trackers on Oct. 24 put Democrats at about 67% to win the Senate and 91% to win the House, with Democrats also favored for 2028 at about 62%. Those are prices, not polls — they move with every trade, and they can swing fast.

The boom has a dark side, and regulators know it. Federal officials have pledged to crack down on insider trading tied to the midterms, and Kalshi has already suspended six 2026 candidates for improperly betting on their own races. CNN also notes the fine print most traders ignore: trading volume does not measure how much money is wagered on a specific outcome, and as with gambling, most people who trade on prediction markets lose money.

The legal ground shifted under this industry in the last two years. The Biden administration tried to shut down election markets in 2024, but PredictIt — which calls itself the "original political prediction market" and has operated since 2014 — prevailed in court, and other federal courts ruled election markets permissible. The Trump administration has since embraced the industry and is finalizing rules that protect election markets. CNN discloses that it has a data partnership with Kalshi and bars its editorial employees from trading on prediction markets.

Why it matters

Polls ask people what they think. Markets ask people to put money behind it. That is why campaign staffs and donors now obsess over the odds, according to CNN's reporting — and why industry expert Dustin Gouker calls the signal "valuable" because it aggregates "polls and public sentiment" into one number. When the price of a Senate contract moves, it is not one pundit's opinion; it is thousands of traders updating their beliefs in real time.

PredictIt co-founder John Aristotle Phillips puts it simply: "There's a hunger for information." Smarkets founder Jason Trost calls it "a completely new ball game" — "different this year because it's legal and it's widely available." The money is still small next to sports and crypto markets, but as a political signal it is already punching above its weight.

Impact on the USA and the world

For American voters, the practical effect is a second scoreboard running next to the polls — one that newsrooms, campaigns and donors now watch daily. If the market's current read holds, Democrats take both chambers on Nov. 3, and that expectation alone shapes fundraising, ad spending and candidate strategy in the final days.

For the rest of the world, the U.S. experiment is a template. Britain's Smarkets is seeking U.S. regulatory approval, smaller firms are racing to enter before the 2028 presidential election, and 2028 contracts are already trading. Whatever rules Washington finalizes for election markets will likely set the pattern other countries follow.

What happens next

Expect the volume to spike, not fade. Gouker says trading should ramp up sharply on Election Day itself, as professional bettors try to cash in on volatile prices while polls close. Then watch Kalshi's next move: Bloomberg reported Oct. 23 that the company plans to launch listed futures contracts in December tracking the consumer price index and core CPI — the only futures directly linked to inflation — pitched to banks and hedge funds.

Our take: treat the odds as a weather forecast, not a result. They move fast, they aggregate real money, and they have been wrong before. The $1.4 billion number matters less as a prediction than as proof of something bigger: election betting is now a mainstream American market, and it is not going away after Nov. 3.

Related reading: Alaska Senate Race: When Will We Know Who Won — and How Ranked-Choice Voting Works There and Why Bitcoin Is Where It Is This Week.

Sources: CNN (Oct. 23, 2026); Bloomberg via DigitalToday (Oct. 23–24, 2026); Kalshi and Polymarket price trackers (Oct. 24, 2026); company spokesperson statements reported by CNN.