In 60 seconds: Alaska's Senate race is a genuine toss-up, and even after the polls close on Nov. 3 the winner may not be known for days. Election night brings only first-choice counts. If nobody clears 50%, the ranked-choice tabulation runs on Nov. 18, with certification targeted for Nov. 25.
- Election night (Nov. 3) shows first-choice votes only — a starting point, not a result.
- If no candidate wins a majority, the ranked-choice rounds are tabulated on Nov. 18; certification is targeted for Nov. 25.
- The long wait comes from Alaska's 15-day absentee-ballot window — a state-law timeline that existed long before ranked-choice voting.
- The ballot holds two Republicans named Dan Sullivan, and former Rep. Mary Peltola led the August primary over the incumbent.
If you go to bed on Nov. 3 expecting to know who controls the Senate, Alaska might be the reason you wake up still waiting.
What happened
Alaska has long leaned Republican in federal elections. But according to the AP, this is the third election cycle in a row that the state has landed among the handful of states that matter most in the fight for Congress — and this year its Senate race is a true toss-up.
Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is fighting former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for the seat. Peltola led the August top-four primary with 49.5% of the vote to Sullivan's 41.4%, and September polls showed her ahead in both first choices and the ranked-choice tally, according to FairVote. President Trump traveled to Alaska on Oct. 13 to campaign for Sullivan. A Decision Desk HQ analyst has said Senate control could, in the right scenario, come down to Alaska — and that it could take many days to know the outcome.
Latest verified facts
How ranked-choice voting works here. Alaska voters rank candidates instead of picking just one. If nobody wins a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is dropped and those ballots move to each voter's next choice. That repeats until someone holds a majority of the ballots still in play. The system, approved by voters in 2020, is used for all Alaska general elections. It also explains the confusion in 2022: on election night, outlets could project that a Republican would win the Senate seat but couldn't say which one, because the ranked-choice rounds hadn't run yet.
The timeline to watch:
- Tuesday, Nov. 3 — Election Day. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Alaska time; in 2022 the last polls closed around 1 a.m. Eastern. Only first-choice totals are reported.
- Nov. 3 to Nov. 18 — the absentee window. Alaska accepts timely postmarked absentee ballots for 15 days after Election Day — domestic mail ballots can arrive until Nov. 13, overseas ballots until Nov. 18 — because ballots have to travel from rural communities across an enormous state.
- Wednesday, Nov. 18 — ranked-choice tabulation. If no candidate has a majority, the elimination rounds run. The tally itself takes about a minute per race, FairVote notes.
- Wednesday, Nov. 25 — certification target. The state aims to certify the results the day before Thanksgiving.
The two Dan Sullivans. This year's ballot has an unusual wrinkle: a second Republican candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, shares the incumbent senator's name. The Alaska Division of Elections tried to disqualify him, arguing the candidacy looked aimed at confusing voters. A court overturned that effort, so he stays on the ballot. If you're voting in Alaska, read your ballot carefully. If you're following from the Lower 48, expect plenty of "which Sullivan?" confusion in early coverage.
One more thing on the ballot: Alaskans are also voting on whether to keep this system at all. Ballot Measure 2 would repeal ranked-choice voting and open primaries and return the state to closed primaries.
Why it matters
Senate control could genuinely hinge on this seat. If the chamber's majority is close enough, the country could know every other result and still not know who runs the Senate until Nov. 18 — or even the certification on Nov. 25.
It also matters that a slow Alaska call is not a broken count. The delay lives in the ballot-arrival window, not in the ranked-choice math: the tabulation takes minutes once the ballots are in. As former Alaska election officials have explained, ranked-choice voting does not extend the counting timeline under Alaska law — the 15-day window does, and it predates the system.
The two-Sullivans problem shows the flip side. Ranked-choice voting softens it: a voter who isn't sure which Sullivan is which can rank both, so a mistaken first choice doesn't have to become a wasted ballot.
Impact on the USA and the world
For the US, a two-week wait in Alaska means Senate leadership planning, committee math and concession decisions all sit in limbo deep into November — while the winners in every other close state are already building their teams.
For the wider world, the Senate's balance shapes defense budgets, foreign aid, sanctions and confirmations. Allies and markets watching Washington in November may have to wait on Anchorage — a reminder that one remote state's ballot logistics can hold up answers the whole world is waiting for.
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What happens next
On election night, treat the first-choice totals as a starting point, not a result — and don't panic when the race is "too early to call." That label, in Alaska, means the process is working the way it was built. Follow the AP's race calls rather than social media screenshots, which will inevitably crown winners two weeks early.
The dates that matter are Nov. 18, when the ranked-choice tabulation runs if nobody has a majority, and Nov. 25, the certification target. Honestly, patience is annoying. But it's how the process is built — the count in Alaska is simply designed to take longer.
Frequently asked questions
When will we know who won Alaska's Senate race?
Election night, Nov. 3, brings first-choice counts only. If no candidate has a majority, the ranked-choice tabulation runs on Nov. 18, and the state targets certification for Nov. 25 — so a close race may not be settled for up to three weeks.
How does ranked-choice voting work in Alaska?
Voters rank the candidates in order of preference. If nobody wins a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their ballots transfer to each voter's next choice, repeating until one candidate holds a majority.
Why does Alaska take so long to count?
State law gives absentee ballots 15 days after Election Day to arrive — a window that long predates ranked-choice voting and exists because ballots travel from rural and overseas locations. During that window the state reports first-choice results only.
Who are the two Dan Sullivans on the ballot?
The incumbent is Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. The other is Dan J. Sullivan, another Republican candidate. The Division of Elections tried to disqualify the second Sullivan, arguing the run was meant to confuse voters, but a court kept him on the ballot.