In 60 seconds: California's final-week PPIC poll has Democrat Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 61% to 37% in the governor's race, while support for the billionaire wealth tax has fallen below a majority, to 46%.
- Becerra leads Hilton 61% to 37% among likely voters — a 24-point margin, up from 22 points in September.
- Proposition 40, the one-time 5% billionaire tax, now draws just 46% support, down from 52% last month.
- 82% of California adults say the country is headed in the wrong direction — the gloomiest reading in two decades of PPIC polling.
- Independents back Becerra 54% to 41%, and 63% of likely voters say they'll vote Democratic in House races.
- Election Day is November 3, with ballots already mailed to every registered voter in the state.
Here's the thing about California's governor race: it hasn't really been close for months, and the final major poll before Election Day doesn't change that story. What it does change is the story underneath it — voters are grumpy, the billionaire tax is losing ground, and Democrats are far more fired up about voting than Republicans are.
Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by 24 points in the PPIC's final-week poll. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.
What happened
The Public Policy Institute of California released its final statewide survey on October 27, a week before Election Day. Among likely voters, Democrat Xavier Becerra — the former U.S. health secretary under President Joe Biden — leads Republican Steve Hilton, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, by 61% to 37%.
The poll was conducted October 16–22 among more than 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points. It's the latest in a run of surveys pointing the same way: PPIC had Becerra up 22 points in September (60% to 38%) and 25 points in July (61% to 36%), and other recent polls have shown leads ranging from the mid-teens to nearly 30 points.
Latest verified facts
The headline number is the least surprising part of the survey. The details underneath it are where things get interesting:
- The partisan walls are holding. 92% of Democrats back Becerra and 89% of Republicans back Hilton. The race is being decided among independents, who favor Becerra 54% to 41% — a 13-point edge.
- Age splits the enthusiasm. Nearly 70% of likely voters 55 and older say they're pleased with their choices for governor, compared with just half of voters aged 18 to 34.
- The mood is bleak. 82% of California adults say the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest share since PPIC started asking the question two decades ago. Nearly eight in ten expect bad economic conditions in the state and the nation over the next 12 months.
- House races lean blue too. 63% of likely voters say they'll vote Democratic in congressional races — relevant well beyond California, since the state's 52 House seats will help decide control of a closely divided Congress.
| Poll (October 2026) | Becerra | Hilton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPIC (Oct 16–22) | 61% | 37% | +24 |
| Emerson College (Oct 21) | 64% | 36% | +28 |
| SurveyUSA (Oct 27) | 54% | 32% | +22 |
| Average of 5 polls | 59.8% | 36.2% | +23.6 |
One caution worth stating plainly: a California Post poll last week showed a narrower 15.7-point Becerra lead, a reminder that individual polls bounce around even when the overall picture is consistent. The polling average, not any single survey, is the number to trust.
Why it matters
The governor's race itself looks settled — Becerra would succeed Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited out. The real suspense on California's ballot is Proposition 40, the citizens' initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on taxpayers with assets over $1 billion. PPIC now finds just 46% of likely voters supporting it, down from 52% in September. That's a six-point slide in a month, and it takes the measure from passing territory to trailing.
PPIC also found nearly 60% of likely voters oppose Proposition 39, the voter ID measure. And the survey's broader mood readings — record pessimism about the country's direction, majorities saying their incomes aren't keeping up with inflation — help explain why even a race this lopsided feels tense: voters aren't endorsing the status quo, they're picking the candidate they dislike least in a state where their party dominates.
Impact on the USA and the world
California is the world's fifth-largest economy in its own right, and its governor sets policy on everything from tech regulation to climate rules that ripple across the country. A Becerra win keeps Sacramento in Democratic hands heading into the 2028 presidential cycle, and the state's House delegation — 52 seats — could be decisive in determining which party controls Congress after November 3.
The Proposition 40 result will be watched far beyond California too. A billionaire wealth tax passing in the state with the most billionaires would have been a template for other states; if it fails after leading in September, it'll be read nationally as a warning about how fast support for tax-the-rich measures can erode under campaign pressure.
What happens next
Ballots and voter guides have already been mailed to California's registered voters, and Election Day is November 3. Our take: watch two numbers on election night, not just the governor's margin. First, whether Proposition 40's slide continues or reverses — a late break back above 50% would be the night's biggest surprise. Second, the enthusiasm gap PPIC flagged: Democrats are far more excited than Republicans or independents about voting in congressional races, and if that holds, California's House results could tilt bluer than even the statewide numbers suggest. The governor's race may be over; the ballot measures are where the drama lives.
Sources: Public Policy Institute of California, "Californians Head to Polls in Historically Sour Mood" (October 27, 2026) and PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government (October 2026); 270toWin California governor polling average; Political Wire, October 28, 2026.
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