In 60 seconds: The Reserve Bank decides Tuesday at 2:30pm AEDT, and all four major banks now expect a fifth 2026 rate hike to 4.85%. On a typical $600,000 mortgage, that would add roughly $100–$110 a month.
- Decision lands 2:30pm AEDT Tuesday 3 November (Melbourne Cup Day); Governor Michele Bullock holds a press conference at 3:30pm.
- The cash rate is 4.60% after the 29 September hike — the fourth rise of 2026.
- September inflation came in hot: headline CPI 4.3%, trimmed mean 3.6%, both well above the RBA's 2–3% target.
- All four major banks tip a 25-basis-point hike to 4.85%, the highest cash rate since 2008; markets price the chance at about 80% or higher.
- One more hike means roughly $100–$110 a month extra on a $600,000 variable loan.
Here's the thing: on Melbourne Cup Day, most of the country stops for a horse race. This Tuesday, millions of Australians will be watching a different clock. At 2:30pm AEDT, the Reserve Bank hands down a decision that could quietly add more than a hundred dollars a month to a typical mortgage — and the banks, for once, are all saying the same thing.
The Reserve Bank of Australia building in Sydney. Photo: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).
What happened
The Board meets Monday and Tuesday, and announces its decision at 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November. Because this is a quarterly meeting, the decision comes with the Statement on Monetary Policy — fresh forecasts for inflation, unemployment and growth — and Governor Michele Bullock fronts a press conference at 3:30pm.
The cash rate sits at 4.60%, after the Board lifted it by 25 basis points on 29 September — the fourth rise of the year. Back then, Bullock refused to forecast where rates would go next. The inflation data since has done the talking.
Latest verified facts
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 28 October that annual headline inflation rose to 4.3% in the year to September, up from 4.0% in August. Housing was the biggest driver, up 5.2% over the year.
The measure the RBA watches most closely told the same story. Trimmed mean inflation — which strips out the wildest price swings — was 3.6% over the year to September, up from a revised 3.5% in August. Over the September quarter alone it rose 1.0%, above the RBA's own forecast of 0.8%. The bank's target is 2–3%, so underlying inflation has now spent 20 straight quarters above the target band's midpoint.
The jobs market is going the other way: unemployment was 4.7% in September, and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told a Senate hearing in October that the inflation outlook looked worse than the bank had expected.
Why it matters
Before that inflation print, two of the big four were still tipping a hold. Not anymore: CBA and NAB both switched to a hike call after the CPI release, joining ANZ and Westpac. All four now expect a 25-basis-point rise on Tuesday to 4.85% — the highest since 2008, and the fifth increase of 2026.
Markets agree. Bond-market pricing for a November hike jumped from about 60% before the CPI release to above 80% after it, and has stayed up there. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham put the dilemma bluntly: even with jobs weakening and house prices falling, the bank looks set to prioritize the inflation fight.
House prices, meanwhile, are falling: Domain's September-quarter report showed median prices down in every capital city — the first time in 15 years all capitals have fallen together — and Cotality put national values down 1.2% in October, the seventh straight monthly fall, 6.7% below the March peak. A rise on Tuesday would land on a market already going backwards.
Terrace houses in Sydney. Photo: Photographic Collection, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
What it means for your mortgage
In real dollars: as a rough guide, one more 25-basis-point rise adds about $16–$17 a month for every $100,000 you owe on a typical variable loan:
| Loan size | Extra per month from one more 0.25pp rise (approx.) |
|---|---|
| $400,000 | About $68 |
| $600,000 | About $100–$110 |
| $750,000 | About $128 |
Those are estimates for a typical variable loan — your actual change depends on your lender, your rate and your loan term. The year's total is what stings: a fifth hike would take the cumulative impact of 2026's rises to roughly $550 a month on a typical $600,000 loan, about $6,600 over a year. Last time, all four majors passed September's hike on in full from 9 October, so a Tuesday decision would likely reach repayments within weeks.
One honest caveat: lenders set their own rates. Even if the Board holds on Tuesday, your bank can still move — and if it hikes, your bank will almost certainly follow. Checking your current variable rate before Tuesday costs nothing.
What happens next
Watch three things Tuesday afternoon: the decision itself at 2:30pm; the new forecasts (CBA expects higher inflation projections and trimmed growth); and Bullock's 3:30pm press conference, especially any hint about February. CBA's base case is a hold in December, Westpac expects one hike then an extended pause, and ANZ still flags a December-or-February risk.
Our take: don't wait for Tuesday. If you're on a variable rate around $600,000, budget for roughly another $100 a month from next month — and if the Board surprises everyone with a hold, that's money you get to keep. Either way, the 2:30pm announcement is the one that matters this Melbourne Cup Day. We'll update this post when the decision lands.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly is the RBA decision?
Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 2:30pm AEDT, with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy released at the same time and Governor Michele Bullock's press conference at 3:30pm AEDT.
How much would a hike add to my mortgage?
Roughly $16–$17 a month per $100,000 borrowed on a typical variable loan — about $100–$110 a month on a $600,000 loan. Your lender decides when and how much of any RBA move it passes on.
Could the RBA still hold rates?
Yes, it's possible: unemployment is 4.7% and house prices are falling, which argues for waiting. But all four major banks expect a hike, and markets price one at about 80% or higher — so a hold would be the surprise, not the hike.
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Sources: Australian Associated Press, "Nation readies itself for rates that stop inflation" (1 Nov 2026); Australian Bureau of Statistics September CPI via AAP/ABC reporting; Savings.com.au; Aussie Home Loans expert predictions; AAP; Domain September-quarter House Price Report and Cotality October dwelling values via reporting.