In 60 seconds: Ethiopian federal forces have recaptured the airport in Mekelle, capital of the Tigray region, as rebel fighters abandon the city — and the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan are meeting in Alamein today as the war threatens to go regional.
- Three sources told Reuters that federal troops retook Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle on Saturday; witnesses report Tigrayan fighters abandoning posts and looting of government buildings.
- AFP reports rebel leaders are leaving the capital; residents fear lawlessness as police stations sit empty.
- Today, the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia plus Sudan's military chief meet in New Alamein to coordinate on the crisis.
- Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties; Ethiopia and Egypt expelled each other's diplomats this week.
- The TPLF leader has signaled a shift to guerrilla warfare — the same strategy that let rebels retake Mekelle in 2021 after losing it in 2020.
The battle for Tigray's capital may be ending — and the battle for the whole Horn of Africa may be beginning. On Saturday, Ethiopian federal forces recaptured the airport in Mekelle, the biggest prize of the September 23 rebel offensive. Witnesses watched Tigrayan fighters drop their posts and walk home. And today, four heads of state are gathering in Egypt to decide what happens next.
What happened
Three sources told Reuters on Saturday that federal troops had regained Alula Aba Nega Airport, about 10 kilometers from central Mekelle. A resident confirmed it, adding that gunfire could be heard outside the city center — and that Tigrayan Defense Force fighters were abandoning their positions and heading home, with looting of government facilities underway.
The Associated Press heard the same from people in the city, though it couldn't pin down exactly when the airport changed hands, and neither side has commented. The airport was one of three airfields seized by the TPLF-led opposition alliance when fighting erupted September 23 — the most serious escalation since the 2020–2022 civil war — forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Axum, and Shire.
An AFP journalist in the city put it starkly: "TPLF militants and leaders are leaving Mekelle." Government offices and police stations stand empty. Residents told AFP they feared looting with no security forces around — "lawlessness could spread, and I am afraid for my life."
Latest verified facts
The airport's fall caps a rapid federal counteroffensive. After the TPLF-led alliance's late-September push, government forces and allied militias — including the Tigray Peace Force, a breakaway faction now fighting alongside Addis Ababa — steadily retook ground and closed the ring around the capital. Al Jazeera's Ethiopia bureau chief reported Friday that federal forces had taken several towns and were closing in; Saturday's airport seizure suggests the ring is now shut.
But the TPLF isn't surrendering — it's changing shape. In a video message Thursday, leader Debretsion Gebremichael signaled a return to the guerrilla campaign it ran when Mekelle fell in 2020. "We operate under a strategy to strike the enemy wherever we choose," he said. That insurgency let the TPLF retake the city in mid-2021. History here doesn't repeat, but it rhymes uncomfortably.
Meanwhile the diplomatic crisis is outrunning the military one. Ethiopia and Eritrea have fully severed relations, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara — plus Sudan and Egypt — of backing the rebels. All three deny it. This week Ethiopia and Egypt expelled each other's diplomats, each envoy given 48 hours to leave.
Why it matters
Mekelle falling would be the biggest government victory since the war reignited. But airports and capitals are the easy part; the TPLF has shown it can lose Mekelle and win the longer war. The real question is whether this becomes a regional war — and today's summit is the clearest sign yet that the region's leaders think it might.
The lineup is extraordinary: Egypt's Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki, Somalia's Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan — four leaders all entangled, in different ways, in Ethiopia's crisis. Egypt's presidency says they'll consult on "regional issues of mutual concern." Translation: how to keep Ethiopia's civil war from becoming everyone's war.
Impact on the USA and the world
Washington is watching with alarm. The State Department has urged "maximum restraint" and a return to the 2018 peace framework — diplomatic language for "do not let this explode." The stakes are concrete: the Horn sits astride Red Sea shipping lanes already strained by the Hormuz crisis, hosts a major US drone base in Djibouti, and anchors counterterrorism operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia.
For 120 million Ethiopians, the immediate fear is simpler: a return to the 2020–2022 war that killed hundreds of thousands. For neighbors, it's refugees, disrupted trade, and the nightmare of Eritrean or Egyptian involvement turning a civil war into an interstate one.
What happens next
Three flashpoints. First, Mekelle itself: if federal troops enter the city, expect the TPLF's promised guerrilla pivot — and a humanitarian crisis as civilians get caught between. Second, today's Alamein summit: a joint de-escalation call would matter; a blame-Ethiopia statement would inflame. Third, the diplomat expulsions: 48-hour windows expiring this week will show whether the rupture keeps widening.
The airport is retaken. The capital may follow. But as the TPLF showed five years ago, losing Mekelle isn't the same as losing — and the most dangerous phase may be the one where everyone claims to be winning.